Weekly FOREX – Week of Feb 22 – It’s a Greek Thing.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Flat
This market is not currently favorable for swing trading, just intraday trading and scalping. This is because the market has not moved protractedly in a vivid direction for weeks. There is a support line at 1.1300 and a resistance line at 1.1450, so a breakout is needed determine the next direction of the market. A close above resistance at 1.1450 is more probable as EUR is likely to rally this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Movement on this pair is more conspicuous than on EURUSD so, to see what this market is doing more clearly, timeframes such as hourly and 30-minutes are best. The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the near-term, as price moved upwards by 200 pips last week to reach the resistance level at 0.9500. From there, price made a retracement of 140 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9400. Further southward correction could result in a bearish near-term bias on this pair.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the bias on Cable is still bullish, weakness is likely this week. On Friday, February 20, price closed at 1.5396 which left a “lower high” formation in the market. Price might reach the distribution territory at 1.5500, but northward movement will probably be limited this week as the likelihood of downward movement is greater.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Flat
This market has not moved significantly recently, leaving price in an equilibrium phase – swayed by alternating buying and selling pressure, and invariably transitory. The demand zone at 118.00 remains a good challenge to any southward attempt and that means a chance to breach the supply level at 120.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Flat
This pair is also in an equilibrium phase and the plunge on Friday was quickly followed by a rally. Price may continue upward this week or next, with any movement above the supply zone at 136.50 resulting in a bullish Confirmation Pattern.

Weekly FOREX – Week of Feb 15 – Grexit time?

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Channel locked
Although the recent bias has been bearish, bulls have been making efforts to push price higher. Price consolidated last week and traded upwards a little, closing at 1.1390 on Friday. The outlook for the rest of this month is bullish, and any movement above the resistance line at 1.1500 will lead to a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is currently volatile as bulls and bears engage in a power tussle. The current bias is bullish, but there is no real expectation of a significant upward move this week as EURUSD is likely to move north and the negative correlation effect would pose a challenge to the bullish bias in USDCHF, causing some pullbacks.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable, which assumed a bullish bias a few weeks ago, experienced a smooth bullish run at the end of last week. Price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5200 and reached the distribution territory at 1.5400: a movement of 200 pips. The distribution territory at 1.5400 is currently being battered, and could give way to further northward movement. This week, price could challenge the next distribution territory at 1.5500.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week, USDJPY rose from the demand level at 118.50, almost reaching the supply level at 120.50 (another move of 200 pips). From near that demand level, price has dropped – rendering bullish efforts useless. Between the supply level at 119.00 and the demand level at 118.50, volatility has increased, but only a break below the demand level at 118.00 can invalidate the recent bullish bias, so price may still rise from here.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross made a commendable effort to climb last week. Short trades are not currently recommended, as price is expected to continue meandering upwards over the next two weeks (interspersed with visible bearish attacks) and this expectation remains logical while price stays above the demand zone at 134.00.

Weekly FOREX: Week of Feb – 01 – The Groundhog.

Will the Groundhog see it’s own shadow strewn across the fallen fields of the Euro to bring us 6 more weeks of bearish trend? Or will the Euro finally recover from it’s fallen graces?

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Flat – Bearish
I’m leaning towards a flat channel with bearish inclination this week. Last week saw a “normal” rebound after such a vast and sudden drop. This leads to many cashed out shorts with a renewing interest as the price stabilizes over this and the coming weeks.  Price made serious bullish attempts, reaching the resistance line at 1.1400 and then consolidated through to the end of last week; all in the context of a downtrend. This week, the downward trend ought to continue, enabling price to reach the support lines at 1.1200 and 1.1150. Only a break above the resistance line at 1.1450 could render the existing bearish outlook invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The long-term bias on USD/CHF is bearish, but in the near-term, the bias is bullish. For the past two weeks, price has been slowly and steadily moving upwards – as forecast. If this slow and steady bullish inclination continues for a few more weeks then the overall bias could turn bullish. However, occasional transitory pullbacks are expected on any journey to the upside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week was characterized by a pitched battle between the bulls and the bears – resulting in serious swings in the market as price bounced between a high of 1.5222 and a low of 1.4987. There is a distribution territory at 1.5200 and an accumulation territory at the same level, so further weakness could let Cable drop back to the accumulation territory at 1.5000. Overall, the outlook is bearish and it will remain so unless the distribution territory at 1.5200 is breached and price is able to remain above it.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There was not much activity in this market over the last week; except for occasional short-term upswings and downswings. This week, should see either the supply level at 119.00 or the demand level at 117.00 being breached. A breach to the upside will result in a new lease of bullish energy, while a break downward will result in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern, but this is currently a market in equilibrium.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Despite significant attempts from bulls to push price up last week, the outlook for this market is bearish. From the demand zone at 130.50, price went up to reach the supply zone at 134.00. On Friday, January 29, 2015, price closed at 132.66, on a bearish note. The weakness in this cross is still evident, so only a break above the supply zone at 135.50 could really endanger the bearish outlook.

“Since the market provides us with an infinite number of opportunities — and will continue to do so as long as human nature remains what it is, only fill your bowl with what you can carry on each trade.” – Dr Ken Long

Weekly FOREX 1-25-2015 – Watching Europe Burn

While it’s sort of not funny to get giddy over an entire economy collapsing, there’s money to be made in it. First the Swiss file for a “surprise” divorce then the ECB creates money out of thin air. Upwards of 60 Billion euro’s a month till the end of 2016. Which means it will soon be less than the US dollar. Pack your bags, ’cause a European vacation is gonna be a whole lot cheaper.
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Euro is now one of the weakest of the popular currencies, having dropped by roughly 900 pips since the beginning of this year. The support line at 1.1150 has already been tested and will be tested again (with the potential to be breached), as it is supported by a vivid Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook for this week is bearish – continuous selling pressure is expected and there is a strong possibility that the Euro could reach parity with the US Dollar.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on USDCHF remains unchanged. On Friday, January 23, 2015, price closed at 0.8784. As EURUSD is weak, USDCHF ought to be strong, and that strength will continue to build gradually in the context of a bearish outlook. Price should continue to move slowly and steadily upwards this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
One nice thing about Cable is that it has now resumed a clean, positive correlation with EURUSD – an established habit. Cable and EURUSD are both dropping, but the drop in the latter is more significant. For Cable, a further drop is expected this week, which may be more serious than the drop last week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
When compared to EURJPY, this pair did not move so much recently. Upswings are alternated by downswings, though the bears are able to make their presence felt. Price may be able to reach the demand level at 116.50, but there is the possibility that the bulls will end up dominating the market before the end of this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair made some effort to rally last week. From the beginning of the week, price went upwards by 200 pips, reaching the supply zone at 137.50. However, further upwards movement was rejected at that supply zone, and price dropped steeply – reaching the demand zone at 131.00. There is a negligible upward bounce in the market, which means almost nothing when compared to the overall bias. Overall, this pair has dropped over 1300 pips since the beginning of this year. Price may test the demand zones at 131.00 and 130.00, but will only go further south in the face of continued weakness in the Euro, as there is the possibility that the Yen will become weaker before the end of this month.

Weekly FOREX – Jan 18 – The Red Wedding

This week looks to be quite a bearish one. With the Swiss Franc going solo (de-coupling) against the EURO, both are in for a hectic ride until things stabilize in the coming months. The only thing to say is if you like the Bull ride, this is not your week.

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved down by over 300 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.1459. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market so price may test the support line at 1.1450, even if an upwards bounce follows. If so, the possibility exists that the resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 could be challenged.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is now an abnormal market, as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the peg on EURCHF and cut their interest rate (which is currently negative). This happened on January 15, 2015 and had an extreme impact on all CHF pairs. For example, CHFJPY rose by over 2400 pips to reach a high of 138.97; and USDCHF nosedived by over 2800 pips, reaching a low of 0.7309. This all happened in one day, and similarly unusual volatility affected all other CHF pairs. These kinds of 1-day movements are extremely spectacular, but prices are bound to correct in the long run, so things should return to normal in a matter of weeks. For instance, when USDCHF dropped like a stone, EURUSD should have spiked skywards, as they are usually negatively correlated. In reality, EURUSD was not affected, so both pairs cannot remain bearish for long (and the Greenback is strong in its own right). USDCHF should therefore move upwards by at least 500 pips this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable made noticeable effort to go bullish last week, but further bullish effort was halted at the distribution territory of 1.5250 and, since then, a bearish retracement has occurred. On Friday, January 16, 2015, price closed around the distribution territory at 1.5150. More bearish movement is expected this week, so price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The general outlook on this pair is weak – though price is making some effort to go up in the context of the downtrend. The demand levels at 116.50 and 116.00 could be tested this week (leading to the same demand levels defending further southerly thrust). Bullish effort could therefore enable price to test the supply levels at 118.00 and 118.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross dropped by over 400 pips last week, closing at 135.97 on Friday. Overall, it has dropped by over 1,000 pips since the beginning of this year. The current shallow rally pales into insignificance compared to the overall bias – bearish. The only thing that can change the situation is a weakening of the Yen, which could happen this week or next.

Weekly FOREX Jan 11 2015 NYE

Happy New Year for those who celebrate it.

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
no surprise that the EURUSD assumed its southerly journey on January 2, 2015, going down further and further during the following days. With a looming threat of Nuclear war with Russia over the Ukraine the pressure is on. Price went below the support line at 1.1800, and then consolidated until the end of the week. There is now a slight rally, which could portend the start of buying pressure if price crosses the resistance line at 1.1900, going towards another resistance line at 1.2000. The support lines at 1.1800 and 1.1700 remain a barrier to further downward movement at this time.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since USD reached parity with CHF, this pair has moved upwards another 200 pips, enabling price to test the resistance level at 1.0200. There is a minor pullback in the market, which could mean the beginning a near-term bearish run, provided that the great support level at 1.0000 is unable to contain more bearish correction. On the other hand, a break above the resistance line at 1.0200 could indicate the continuation of the existing bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is bearish – going down by over 200 pips on January 2, 2015, and going down over 200 pips again last week. The accumulation territory at 1.5050 was tested before the current upwards bounce in the market, which has taken price above the accumulation territory of 1.5150. While it is possible for price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5250, the probability of pullbacks reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5050 again still exists.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY remains volatile, with short-term victories for both bulls and bears. Over the past few weeks, this pair has been unable to remain above the supply level at 120.50 and, as a result, the near-term bias has become bearish. In the face of recent swings in the market, the demand levels at 118.00 and 117.50 could now be tested. The supply levels at 120.00 and 120.50 should also act as impediment to rallies in the market.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the beginning of this month, this pair has moved south by more than 450 pips – contributing to the strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Friday (January 9, 2015), price closed at 140.32 – on a bearish note. Since it closed below the supply zone at 140.50, it may be easier for the demand zones at 139.50 or 139.00 to be tested, although there could be a strong rally after that.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“Realize that there is no holy grail and that a simple approach with proper money management can actually work.” – Dave Landry

Weekly FOREX December 21

Christmas week. Merry Christmas all. So much exciting, after EURUSD’s huge jump it lost all that and fell further down the spiral.

Also as a treat EURGBP is expected to take the long slow and steady plunge. Open yourself a SHORT position for a long term hold. Set a stop at 0.7870 and let her ride down the slippery slope.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair tested the resistance line at 1.2550 before further upward movement was rejected. From that resistance line, price went down by over 300 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.2250. This has resulted in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern and price is expected to continue dropping this week, possibly reaching the support lines at 1.2200 and 1.2150.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF broke below the support level at 0.9600 but it was unable to remain below for long. Price then moved upwards significantly – exceeding the support level at 0.9800. This has resulted in a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern and price should continue upwards this week – potentially challenging the resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a very volatile market – the result of an ongoing struggle between bulls and bears. Looking at this market more closely shows that bears are gradually winning the battle and will likely maintain their subtle supremacy over the next several trading days. The accumulation territory at 1.5550 is a formidable bearish barrier; however, continued strength in the Greenback could see that accumulation territory breached.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair dipped significantly at the beginning of last week, going below the demand level at 116.00. After that, bulls came in on a mission and drove price northwards – pushing above the demand level at 119.00. The supply level at 119.50 is currently being battered and there is a high probability of that being breached, allowing price to target the supply level at 120.50 this week or next.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross should really be going upwards; however, weakness in the Euro is too great to allow any significant bullish movement. Despite valiant effort by bulls, the outlook remains bearish. The demand zone at 145.00 is highly likely to be challenged – even if a rally follows that.

Weekly FOREX for December 14th.

The year is coming to a close and what a great time it’s been. We’re seeing the expected year end reversals and a time to renew.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Haven’t put some green in here for a while. Here’s my favorite pair turning things around. This market gained over 210 pips this week after testing the support line at 1.2250, and all indications suggest that short trades are illogical in the near-term. It is still possible for the bears to regain control before the end of this year, but the immediate outlook is bullish, and a break above the resistance line at 1.2500 will confirm a stronger bullish influence.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Weakness in the US Dollar has enabled this pair to drop over the past week. Price tested the resistance level at 0.9800, but it could not close above it and, from there, trended downwards by around 160 pips – going below the resistance level of 0.9650. From here, price may reach the support level at 0.9600 which, if broken, will mean that bulls have given up the fight for now.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable went bullish this week – initially moving upwards in a slow and steady manner, and then moving sideways until the close of the market. Price closed at 1.5715 on Friday, December 12, 2014; above the accumulation territory at 1.5700. The distribution territory at 1.5750 has been tested and could be again. With more strength in the market, another distribution territory at 1.5800 may ultimately be tested, as that is the short-term bullish target. However, Cable could easily weaken again before the end of this year.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY managed to get above the supply level at 121.50, but further bullish movement was rejected and price dropped by over 400 pips to test the demand level at 117.50. Although bearish efforts have been rejected at that demand level, it could well be tested again and even breached.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The situation on this cross is currently dicey. EUR is making an effort to turn bullish and JPY is nether weak. The market dropped seriously, but was contained at the demand zone of 146.50. From there, price has gone up 150 pips, sitting on the supply zone at 148.00 which is very likely to give way – enabling price to attack the supply zone at 149.00.

Weekly FOREX for December 7

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a weak market, and the break below 1.2400 (which is now a resistance line) strengthened the bearish bias as price continued lower, closing below the resistance line at 1.2300. The target for next week is the support line at 1.2200, which should be tested assuming continued weakness in this market. Any rallies should be seen as opportunities to sell short, and as long as price remains below the resistance line at 1.2500, the bearish bias remains valid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/CHF was able to close above the target of 0.9750 (which is now a support level) and now moves very close to the resistance level at 0.9800, which could easily be breached if price targets the resistance level at 0.9850. Could USD reach parity again with CHF? Possibly – even this month.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair is also weak, so was able to break below 1.5600 – a level that had been a stubborn hurdle for several weeks. If price continues downward then it should reach the accumulation territory at 1.5500 and the distribution territory at 1.5600 (which is now a strong bullish barrier) should resist possible rallies along the way. Any rally strong enough to break 1.5600 could be strong enough to threaten the current bearish outlook.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this pair is stronger than ever – essentially due to great strength in USD and great weakness in JPY. The supply level at 121.50 is under siege and likely to be broken. The possibility of a large pullback exists for this and other JPY pairs, however, any pullback should be contained by the 120.50 and 119.50 demand levels.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross moved upwards by roughly 200 pips this week (USDJPY moved up 300 pips). Price ought to target the supply zone at 150.00, but the possibility of bearish retracements cannot be ruled out; though any drop should be halted by the demand zones at 148.50 and 147.50. The bias remains bullish.

Weekly Forex for November 30, 2014

Sorry for the delayed forecasts, my first child and daughter was born on the 30th. Such a chaotic last few days.

Anyway, not much has changed in the way for directions. EUR/USD is continuing it’s journey to the center of the Earth and the JPY pairs are movin’ on up.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been showcasing a serious struggle between bulls and bears, with price remaining volatile. Attempts have been made to push price upward, but have generally been thwarted. Before the bias can be considered bullish, price must go above the resistance line at 1.2600. However, movement below the support line at 1.2400 will signify a strengthening of the extant bearish bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As long as EURUSD is bearish, USDCHF will be bullish. In fact, it is very much likely that USDCHF will remain bullish for the rest of this year, so buying short-term pullbacks appears a reasonable approach at this point. In particular, pullbacks into the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 could be good entry signals for buyers, especially when bullish candles form after these support levels are tested. Only a close below the support level at 0.9550 will mean the end of the bullish outlook.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness in Cable is more pronounced than in EURUSD, but short trades are not currently recommended for this market as price could bounce after testing the accumulation territories at 1.5600 and 1.5550. Similarly, the distribution territories at 1.5750 and 1.5800 should challenge any attempted rallies, so long trades should not be entertained until a close occurs above the distribution territory at 1.5800.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has not reached the supply level at 119.00, but it is now close. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market means that supply level is likely to be breached as price targets the supply level at 119.50. Bearish retracements taking price into the 118.00 and 117.50 areas would therefore be good opportunities to buy.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURJPY trended upwards at the beginning of this week then meandered sideways for a few days, forming a short-term base. On Friday, November 28, 2014, price broke upwards from the base and is poised to continue further. The base around the 146.00 level is now a barrier to bearish retracements and price may now target the supply zone at 149.00.