KONICA MINOLTA DIGITAL CAMERA

Weekly FOREX for December 14th.

The year is coming to a close and what a great time it’s been. We’re seeing the expected year end reversals and a time to renew.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Haven’t put some green in here for a while. Here’s my favorite pair turning things around. This market gained over 210 pips this week after testing the support line at 1.2250, and all indications suggest that short trades are illogical in the near-term. It is still possible for the bears to regain control before the end of this year, but the immediate outlook is bullish, and a break above the resistance line at 1.2500 will confirm a stronger bullish influence.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Weakness in the US Dollar has enabled this pair to drop over the past week. Price tested the resistance level at 0.9800, but it could not close above it and, from there, trended downwards by around 160 pips – going below the resistance level of 0.9650. From here, price may reach the support level at 0.9600 which, if broken, will mean that bulls have given up the fight for now.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable went bullish this week – initially moving upwards in a slow and steady manner, and then moving sideways until the close of the market. Price closed at 1.5715 on Friday, December 12, 2014; above the accumulation territory at 1.5700. The distribution territory at 1.5750 has been tested and could be again. With more strength in the market, another distribution territory at 1.5800 may ultimately be tested, as that is the short-term bullish target. However, Cable could easily weaken again before the end of this year.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY managed to get above the supply level at 121.50, but further bullish movement was rejected and price dropped by over 400 pips to test the demand level at 117.50. Although bearish efforts have been rejected at that demand level, it could well be tested again and even breached.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The situation on this cross is currently dicey. EUR is making an effort to turn bullish and JPY is nether weak. The market dropped seriously, but was contained at the demand zone of 146.50. From there, price has gone up 150 pips, sitting on the supply zone at 148.00 which is very likely to give way – enabling price to attack the supply zone at 149.00.

Weekly FOREX for December 7

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a weak market, and the break below 1.2400 (which is now a resistance line) strengthened the bearish bias as price continued lower, closing below the resistance line at 1.2300. The target for next week is the support line at 1.2200, which should be tested assuming continued weakness in this market. Any rallies should be seen as opportunities to sell short, and as long as price remains below the resistance line at 1.2500, the bearish bias remains valid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/CHF was able to close above the target of 0.9750 (which is now a support level) and now moves very close to the resistance level at 0.9800, which could easily be breached if price targets the resistance level at 0.9850. Could USD reach parity again with CHF? Possibly – even this month.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair is also weak, so was able to break below 1.5600 – a level that had been a stubborn hurdle for several weeks. If price continues downward then it should reach the accumulation territory at 1.5500 and the distribution territory at 1.5600 (which is now a strong bullish barrier) should resist possible rallies along the way. Any rally strong enough to break 1.5600 could be strong enough to threaten the current bearish outlook.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this pair is stronger than ever – essentially due to great strength in USD and great weakness in JPY. The supply level at 121.50 is under siege and likely to be broken. The possibility of a large pullback exists for this and other JPY pairs, however, any pullback should be contained by the 120.50 and 119.50 demand levels.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross moved upwards by roughly 200 pips this week (USDJPY moved up 300 pips). Price ought to target the supply zone at 150.00, but the possibility of bearish retracements cannot be ruled out; though any drop should be halted by the demand zones at 148.50 and 147.50. The bias remains bullish.

Weekly Forex for November 30, 2014

Sorry for the delayed forecasts, my first child and daughter was born on the 30th. Such a chaotic last few days.

Anyway, not much has changed in the way for directions. EUR/USD is continuing it’s journey to the center of the Earth and the JPY pairs are movin’ on up.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been showcasing a serious struggle between bulls and bears, with price remaining volatile. Attempts have been made to push price upward, but have generally been thwarted. Before the bias can be considered bullish, price must go above the resistance line at 1.2600. However, movement below the support line at 1.2400 will signify a strengthening of the extant bearish bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As long as EURUSD is bearish, USDCHF will be bullish. In fact, it is very much likely that USDCHF will remain bullish for the rest of this year, so buying short-term pullbacks appears a reasonable approach at this point. In particular, pullbacks into the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 could be good entry signals for buyers, especially when bullish candles form after these support levels are tested. Only a close below the support level at 0.9550 will mean the end of the bullish outlook.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness in Cable is more pronounced than in EURUSD, but short trades are not currently recommended for this market as price could bounce after testing the accumulation territories at 1.5600 and 1.5550. Similarly, the distribution territories at 1.5750 and 1.5800 should challenge any attempted rallies, so long trades should not be entertained until a close occurs above the distribution territory at 1.5800.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has not reached the supply level at 119.00, but it is now close. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market means that supply level is likely to be breached as price targets the supply level at 119.50. Bearish retracements taking price into the 118.00 and 117.50 areas would therefore be good opportunities to buy.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURJPY trended upwards at the beginning of this week then meandered sideways for a few days, forming a short-term base. On Friday, November 28, 2014, price broke upwards from the base and is poised to continue further. The base around the 146.00 level is now a barrier to bearish retracements and price may now target the supply zone at 149.00.

Weekly FOREX for Nov 23

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The hope for EURUSD to go seriously bullish this month has been dashed. Price broke down through one support line and then another. Price has closed below the resistance line at 1.2400, and may soon test the support line at 1.2350. With sustained weakness in this market, the support line at 1.2300 may also be tested. Currently, the only thing likely to change the situation is weakness in the Greenback.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has been able to shrug off the bearish pulls that were trying to weigh it down. The bearish effort has been nullified and strength in the market may continue into December 2014. Price has now closed above the support level at 0.9650, threatening the resistance level at 0.9700. That resistance level is now almost yielding and the next target is the resistance level at 0.9750.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is still a weak market with no clear directional movement within the last several trading days. The accumulation territory at 1.5600 has been tested over the past two weeks and is likely to be tested again. However, a breach is less likely so price may attempt to rally at any time.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is very strong, with a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Most JPY pairs have the potential to remain strong until the end of this month, so it would be okay to look at buying on dips and the current shallow sale should be seen as another opportunity to go long at a better price. There is a supply level at 119.00 which could be reached and breached as price resumes its northward journey.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
From the supply zone at 149.00, EURJPY plummeted by roughly 300 pips to close below the supply zone at 146.50. The short-term outlook is bearish, but the dominant bias remains bullish unless price breaks the demand zone at 144.50. A break below that demand zone would mean the end of the bearish outlook on this cross; otherwise price can resume the upwards journey.

Weekly FOREX for Week of Nov 16

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair is simply my favorite and currently most profitable if trading on a sell the highs methodology. The outlook on this pair remains bearish, but there was a significant bullish effort on Friday, and the bearish outlook may be jeopardized if price manages to get above the resistance line at 1.2600. As long as price remains below that resistance line, the bearish outlook will be valid, but a breach could indicate the beginning of a medium-term bullish trend that may hold out until early December 2014.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although this pair is still bullish, that outlook is now seriously threatened. The market traded largely sideways over the last several trading days, finally breaking out in favor of the bears. While some may be thinking of “buying low”, any movement below the support level at 0.9550 would make seeking long entries inadvisable – especially in the face of increasing strength in CHF.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a weak market, and GBP itself, is now weak against most majors. The market dropped seriously this week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5600, before the current listless upward bounce. With further weakness in GBP, that accumulation territory may be tested again: possibly even breached. However, Cable may try to resume normal positive correlation with its EURUSD counterpart, in which case, a moderate transitory rally may result.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY remains bullish as a result of the marked weakness in the Yen. This is evident on most other JPY pairs, so this uptrend may continue for the rest of this month. The best thing to do now is to look for buying opportunities when price dips.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross has been able to trend further upwards recently; a bias which is expected to continue. Since last month, price has risen by more than 1000 pips, and the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market is getting stronger and stronger. While the demand zone at 144.00 ought to be watched, the supply zone at 147.00 is a now potential target.

Weekly Forex

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The outlook for EURUSD remains bearish as the market dropped below the support line at 1.2400. Since then, the price has bounced upwards a little, almost closing above 1.2450. While price could easily hit the support line at 1.2400 again, it is now more likely to begin a rally during the next two weeks – especially if price crosses the resistance line at 1.2600 to the upside. At that point, the bias will have turned bullish.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is currently bullish, but may not be so at the end of the fortnight. Until then, it is possible for bulls to push price near the resistance line at 1.9750, but it is not likely that the line will be breached – at least, not for the time being. Price has been correcting lower (which some may see as an opportunity to go long) but, should any strength develop in CHF (which is expected to occur over the next two weeks), USDCHF will fall towards the support level at 0.9550.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable trended downwards last week, dropping more than 200 pips. Price hit the accumulation territory at 1.5800 before the recent weak rally. With further strength in the Greenback, Cable could fall below that accumulation territory, but there is a possibility of the currently weak rally gaining strength and taking price back towards the distribution territory at 1.6000.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair remains strong, maintaining a pronounced Bullish Confirmation Pattern. Price went far beyond our weekly target – managing to test the supply level at 115.50 before falling back slightly. Moderate bullish effort could see that supply level hit again, and there is a demand level at 113.50 that should be a barrier to any bearish activity. That said, should price manage to drop below the demand level at 113.00, the bullish outlook will be under threat.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The market closed at 142.72 on Friday, November 7, 2014 after moving sideways for a few days. The overall trend is bullish, but is now relying on the Euro gaining strength and the Yen not.

big-brown-bear-running-in-the-water

Weekly FOREX: Market outlook for this week Oct 26

Here’s the market outlook for this week

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This is a weak market, so the current shallow rally is another opportunity to go short. This week, there is a possibility of price going far enough south to reach the support lines at 1.2600 and 1.2550. Meanwhile, the resistance lines at 1.2750 and 1.2800 ought to serve as sufficient hindrance to bullish interests and prevent price being pushed upward.

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDCHF has found some strength, making the present bearish retracement a good chance to enter the market at a better price. It’s quite likely that price will target the resistance levels at 0.9600 and 0.9650 this week and rely on the support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400 to prevent price being dragged downward.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

There is no clear directional bias for Cable, especially considering recent price action. It is quite usual for price to trend upwards, only to retrace again in near-term movement. However, looking at price action more closely shows that the bulls are making a sincere effort to gain control; hence the current consolidation to the upside. It is therefore more likely that the eventual breakout will be to the upside. If correct, price may reach the distribution territories at 1.6150 and 1.6200.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair has been going upward in a slow and steady manner. Price is currently above the demand level at 108.00, and a break above the demand level at 108.50 will result in a very strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern. Given recent activity, short trades are not advisable at this time as the nearest demand level is at 107.00.

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

The Euro is weak, but the Yen is even weaker. Since testing the demand zone at 135.50, price has gone upward by around 150 pips. The supply zone at 137.00 is now under siege – almost giving way to the battering from buying pressure. Most JPY pairs are expected to go up this week, with this cross potentially reaching the supply zones at 137.50 and 138.00.

“I enjoy talking about trading and would like to convince people that you can learn to trade just as you can train for any other profession and that there’s nothing “evil” about it.” – Ruediger Born

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax adviser if you have any questions.

wallstreetcrash

Weekly FOREX for Oct 19

Weekly Forex

This week and the next few will be interesting to say the least. We’re at a crossroads of trend reversals or continuation as the last few weeks have shown us a lot of consolidation and sideways moves. My recommendation is thus only trade in the “direction” of the below forecasts but for a short duration of time. Like EURUSD, when the price drops, buy in a long and close it at 200 units (pips) of profit, let it drop again then open a new long trade. This way, you are protecting yourself in the event the price maintains an upwards momentum.

Continue reading

Weekly Forex, Oct 05, 2014

Here’s your weekly Forex.

I took some time off playing Bungie’s new game Destiny to bring you this FOREX forecast.

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

The Euro is now one of the weakest currencies of the majors. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is proving to be the strongest. It is therefore no surprise that EURUSD dropped sharply again last week – falling below the resistance line at 1.2550 and suggesting the support lines at 1.2500 and 1.2450 might be tested. However, there it is quite likely that the Euro will gain strength before the end of this week, which may result in the aforementioned support lines aiding the bulls.

Continue reading