Weekly FOREX 1-25-2015 – Watching Europe Burn

While it’s sort of not funny to get giddy over an entire economy collapsing, there’s money to be made in it. First the Swiss file for a “surprise” divorce then the ECB creates money out of thin air. Upwards of 60 Billion euro’s a month till the end of 2016. Which means it will soon be less than the US dollar. Pack your bags, ’cause a European vacation is gonna be a whole lot cheaper.
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Euro is now one of the weakest of the popular currencies, having dropped by roughly 900 pips since the beginning of this year. The support line at 1.1150 has already been tested and will be tested again (with the potential to be breached), as it is supported by a vivid Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook for this week is bearish – continuous selling pressure is expected and there is a strong possibility that the Euro could reach parity with the US Dollar.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on USDCHF remains unchanged. On Friday, January 23, 2015, price closed at 0.8784. As EURUSD is weak, USDCHF ought to be strong, and that strength will continue to build gradually in the context of a bearish outlook. Price should continue to move slowly and steadily upwards this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
One nice thing about Cable is that it has now resumed a clean, positive correlation with EURUSD – an established habit. Cable and EURUSD are both dropping, but the drop in the latter is more significant. For Cable, a further drop is expected this week, which may be more serious than the drop last week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
When compared to EURJPY, this pair did not move so much recently. Upswings are alternated by downswings, though the bears are able to make their presence felt. Price may be able to reach the demand level at 116.50, but there is the possibility that the bulls will end up dominating the market before the end of this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair made some effort to rally last week. From the beginning of the week, price went upwards by 200 pips, reaching the supply zone at 137.50. However, further upwards movement was rejected at that supply zone, and price dropped steeply – reaching the demand zone at 131.00. There is a negligible upward bounce in the market, which means almost nothing when compared to the overall bias. Overall, this pair has dropped over 1300 pips since the beginning of this year. Price may test the demand zones at 131.00 and 130.00, but will only go further south in the face of continued weakness in the Euro, as there is the possibility that the Yen will become weaker before the end of this month.

Weekly FOREX – Jan 18 – The Red Wedding

This week looks to be quite a bearish one. With the Swiss Franc going solo (de-coupling) against the EURO, both are in for a hectic ride until things stabilize in the coming months. The only thing to say is if you like the Bull ride, this is not your week.

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved down by over 300 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.1459. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market so price may test the support line at 1.1450, even if an upwards bounce follows. If so, the possibility exists that the resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 could be challenged.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is now an abnormal market, as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the peg on EURCHF and cut their interest rate (which is currently negative). This happened on January 15, 2015 and had an extreme impact on all CHF pairs. For example, CHFJPY rose by over 2400 pips to reach a high of 138.97; and USDCHF nosedived by over 2800 pips, reaching a low of 0.7309. This all happened in one day, and similarly unusual volatility affected all other CHF pairs. These kinds of 1-day movements are extremely spectacular, but prices are bound to correct in the long run, so things should return to normal in a matter of weeks. For instance, when USDCHF dropped like a stone, EURUSD should have spiked skywards, as they are usually negatively correlated. In reality, EURUSD was not affected, so both pairs cannot remain bearish for long (and the Greenback is strong in its own right). USDCHF should therefore move upwards by at least 500 pips this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable made noticeable effort to go bullish last week, but further bullish effort was halted at the distribution territory of 1.5250 and, since then, a bearish retracement has occurred. On Friday, January 16, 2015, price closed around the distribution territory at 1.5150. More bearish movement is expected this week, so price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The general outlook on this pair is weak – though price is making some effort to go up in the context of the downtrend. The demand levels at 116.50 and 116.00 could be tested this week (leading to the same demand levels defending further southerly thrust). Bullish effort could therefore enable price to test the supply levels at 118.00 and 118.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross dropped by over 400 pips last week, closing at 135.97 on Friday. Overall, it has dropped by over 1,000 pips since the beginning of this year. The current shallow rally pales into insignificance compared to the overall bias – bearish. The only thing that can change the situation is a weakening of the Yen, which could happen this week or next.

Weekly FOREX Jan 11 2015 NYE

Happy New Year for those who celebrate it.

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
no surprise that the EURUSD assumed its southerly journey on January 2, 2015, going down further and further during the following days. With a looming threat of Nuclear war with Russia over the Ukraine the pressure is on. Price went below the support line at 1.1800, and then consolidated until the end of the week. There is now a slight rally, which could portend the start of buying pressure if price crosses the resistance line at 1.1900, going towards another resistance line at 1.2000. The support lines at 1.1800 and 1.1700 remain a barrier to further downward movement at this time.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since USD reached parity with CHF, this pair has moved upwards another 200 pips, enabling price to test the resistance level at 1.0200. There is a minor pullback in the market, which could mean the beginning a near-term bearish run, provided that the great support level at 1.0000 is unable to contain more bearish correction. On the other hand, a break above the resistance line at 1.0200 could indicate the continuation of the existing bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is bearish – going down by over 200 pips on January 2, 2015, and going down over 200 pips again last week. The accumulation territory at 1.5050 was tested before the current upwards bounce in the market, which has taken price above the accumulation territory of 1.5150. While it is possible for price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5250, the probability of pullbacks reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5050 again still exists.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY remains volatile, with short-term victories for both bulls and bears. Over the past few weeks, this pair has been unable to remain above the supply level at 120.50 and, as a result, the near-term bias has become bearish. In the face of recent swings in the market, the demand levels at 118.00 and 117.50 could now be tested. The supply levels at 120.00 and 120.50 should also act as impediment to rallies in the market.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the beginning of this month, this pair has moved south by more than 450 pips – contributing to the strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Friday (January 9, 2015), price closed at 140.32 – on a bearish note. Since it closed below the supply zone at 140.50, it may be easier for the demand zones at 139.50 or 139.00 to be tested, although there could be a strong rally after that.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“Realize that there is no holy grail and that a simple approach with proper money management can actually work.” – Dave Landry

Weekly FOREX December 21

Christmas week. Merry Christmas all. So much exciting, after EURUSD’s huge jump it lost all that and fell further down the spiral.

Also as a treat EURGBP is expected to take the long slow and steady plunge. Open yourself a SHORT position for a long term hold. Set a stop at 0.7870 and let her ride down the slippery slope.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair tested the resistance line at 1.2550 before further upward movement was rejected. From that resistance line, price went down by over 300 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.2250. This has resulted in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern and price is expected to continue dropping this week, possibly reaching the support lines at 1.2200 and 1.2150.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF broke below the support level at 0.9600 but it was unable to remain below for long. Price then moved upwards significantly – exceeding the support level at 0.9800. This has resulted in a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern and price should continue upwards this week – potentially challenging the resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a very volatile market – the result of an ongoing struggle between bulls and bears. Looking at this market more closely shows that bears are gradually winning the battle and will likely maintain their subtle supremacy over the next several trading days. The accumulation territory at 1.5550 is a formidable bearish barrier; however, continued strength in the Greenback could see that accumulation territory breached.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair dipped significantly at the beginning of last week, going below the demand level at 116.00. After that, bulls came in on a mission and drove price northwards – pushing above the demand level at 119.00. The supply level at 119.50 is currently being battered and there is a high probability of that being breached, allowing price to target the supply level at 120.50 this week or next.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross should really be going upwards; however, weakness in the Euro is too great to allow any significant bullish movement. Despite valiant effort by bulls, the outlook remains bearish. The demand zone at 145.00 is highly likely to be challenged – even if a rally follows that.

Weekly FOREX for December 14th.

The year is coming to a close and what a great time it’s been. We’re seeing the expected year end reversals and a time to renew.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Haven’t put some green in here for a while. Here’s my favorite pair turning things around. This market gained over 210 pips this week after testing the support line at 1.2250, and all indications suggest that short trades are illogical in the near-term. It is still possible for the bears to regain control before the end of this year, but the immediate outlook is bullish, and a break above the resistance line at 1.2500 will confirm a stronger bullish influence.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Weakness in the US Dollar has enabled this pair to drop over the past week. Price tested the resistance level at 0.9800, but it could not close above it and, from there, trended downwards by around 160 pips – going below the resistance level of 0.9650. From here, price may reach the support level at 0.9600 which, if broken, will mean that bulls have given up the fight for now.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable went bullish this week – initially moving upwards in a slow and steady manner, and then moving sideways until the close of the market. Price closed at 1.5715 on Friday, December 12, 2014; above the accumulation territory at 1.5700. The distribution territory at 1.5750 has been tested and could be again. With more strength in the market, another distribution territory at 1.5800 may ultimately be tested, as that is the short-term bullish target. However, Cable could easily weaken again before the end of this year.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY managed to get above the supply level at 121.50, but further bullish movement was rejected and price dropped by over 400 pips to test the demand level at 117.50. Although bearish efforts have been rejected at that demand level, it could well be tested again and even breached.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The situation on this cross is currently dicey. EUR is making an effort to turn bullish and JPY is nether weak. The market dropped seriously, but was contained at the demand zone of 146.50. From there, price has gone up 150 pips, sitting on the supply zone at 148.00 which is very likely to give way – enabling price to attack the supply zone at 149.00.

Weekly FOREX for December 7

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a weak market, and the break below 1.2400 (which is now a resistance line) strengthened the bearish bias as price continued lower, closing below the resistance line at 1.2300. The target for next week is the support line at 1.2200, which should be tested assuming continued weakness in this market. Any rallies should be seen as opportunities to sell short, and as long as price remains below the resistance line at 1.2500, the bearish bias remains valid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/CHF was able to close above the target of 0.9750 (which is now a support level) and now moves very close to the resistance level at 0.9800, which could easily be breached if price targets the resistance level at 0.9850. Could USD reach parity again with CHF? Possibly – even this month.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair is also weak, so was able to break below 1.5600 – a level that had been a stubborn hurdle for several weeks. If price continues downward then it should reach the accumulation territory at 1.5500 and the distribution territory at 1.5600 (which is now a strong bullish barrier) should resist possible rallies along the way. Any rally strong enough to break 1.5600 could be strong enough to threaten the current bearish outlook.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this pair is stronger than ever – essentially due to great strength in USD and great weakness in JPY. The supply level at 121.50 is under siege and likely to be broken. The possibility of a large pullback exists for this and other JPY pairs, however, any pullback should be contained by the 120.50 and 119.50 demand levels.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross moved upwards by roughly 200 pips this week (USDJPY moved up 300 pips). Price ought to target the supply zone at 150.00, but the possibility of bearish retracements cannot be ruled out; though any drop should be halted by the demand zones at 148.50 and 147.50. The bias remains bullish.

Weekly Forex for November 30, 2014

Sorry for the delayed forecasts, my first child and daughter was born on the 30th. Such a chaotic last few days.

Anyway, not much has changed in the way for directions. EUR/USD is continuing it’s journey to the center of the Earth and the JPY pairs are movin’ on up.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has been showcasing a serious struggle between bulls and bears, with price remaining volatile. Attempts have been made to push price upward, but have generally been thwarted. Before the bias can be considered bullish, price must go above the resistance line at 1.2600. However, movement below the support line at 1.2400 will signify a strengthening of the extant bearish bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As long as EURUSD is bearish, USDCHF will be bullish. In fact, it is very much likely that USDCHF will remain bullish for the rest of this year, so buying short-term pullbacks appears a reasonable approach at this point. In particular, pullbacks into the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 could be good entry signals for buyers, especially when bullish candles form after these support levels are tested. Only a close below the support level at 0.9550 will mean the end of the bullish outlook.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness in Cable is more pronounced than in EURUSD, but short trades are not currently recommended for this market as price could bounce after testing the accumulation territories at 1.5600 and 1.5550. Similarly, the distribution territories at 1.5750 and 1.5800 should challenge any attempted rallies, so long trades should not be entertained until a close occurs above the distribution territory at 1.5800.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has not reached the supply level at 119.00, but it is now close. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market means that supply level is likely to be breached as price targets the supply level at 119.50. Bearish retracements taking price into the 118.00 and 117.50 areas would therefore be good opportunities to buy.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURJPY trended upwards at the beginning of this week then meandered sideways for a few days, forming a short-term base. On Friday, November 28, 2014, price broke upwards from the base and is poised to continue further. The base around the 146.00 level is now a barrier to bearish retracements and price may now target the supply zone at 149.00.

Weekly FOREX for Nov 23

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The hope for EURUSD to go seriously bullish this month has been dashed. Price broke down through one support line and then another. Price has closed below the resistance line at 1.2400, and may soon test the support line at 1.2350. With sustained weakness in this market, the support line at 1.2300 may also be tested. Currently, the only thing likely to change the situation is weakness in the Greenback.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has been able to shrug off the bearish pulls that were trying to weigh it down. The bearish effort has been nullified and strength in the market may continue into December 2014. Price has now closed above the support level at 0.9650, threatening the resistance level at 0.9700. That resistance level is now almost yielding and the next target is the resistance level at 0.9750.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is still a weak market with no clear directional movement within the last several trading days. The accumulation territory at 1.5600 has been tested over the past two weeks and is likely to be tested again. However, a breach is less likely so price may attempt to rally at any time.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is very strong, with a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Most JPY pairs have the potential to remain strong until the end of this month, so it would be okay to look at buying on dips and the current shallow sale should be seen as another opportunity to go long at a better price. There is a supply level at 119.00 which could be reached and breached as price resumes its northward journey.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
From the supply zone at 149.00, EURJPY plummeted by roughly 300 pips to close below the supply zone at 146.50. The short-term outlook is bearish, but the dominant bias remains bullish unless price breaks the demand zone at 144.50. A break below that demand zone would mean the end of the bearish outlook on this cross; otherwise price can resume the upwards journey.

Weekly FOREX for Week of Nov 16

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair is simply my favorite and currently most profitable if trading on a sell the highs methodology. The outlook on this pair remains bearish, but there was a significant bullish effort on Friday, and the bearish outlook may be jeopardized if price manages to get above the resistance line at 1.2600. As long as price remains below that resistance line, the bearish outlook will be valid, but a breach could indicate the beginning of a medium-term bullish trend that may hold out until early December 2014.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although this pair is still bullish, that outlook is now seriously threatened. The market traded largely sideways over the last several trading days, finally breaking out in favor of the bears. While some may be thinking of “buying low”, any movement below the support level at 0.9550 would make seeking long entries inadvisable – especially in the face of increasing strength in CHF.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a weak market, and GBP itself, is now weak against most majors. The market dropped seriously this week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5600, before the current listless upward bounce. With further weakness in GBP, that accumulation territory may be tested again: possibly even breached. However, Cable may try to resume normal positive correlation with its EURUSD counterpart, in which case, a moderate transitory rally may result.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY remains bullish as a result of the marked weakness in the Yen. This is evident on most other JPY pairs, so this uptrend may continue for the rest of this month. The best thing to do now is to look for buying opportunities when price dips.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross has been able to trend further upwards recently; a bias which is expected to continue. Since last month, price has risen by more than 1000 pips, and the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market is getting stronger and stronger. While the demand zone at 144.00 ought to be watched, the supply zone at 147.00 is a now potential target.

Weekly Forex

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The outlook for EURUSD remains bearish as the market dropped below the support line at 1.2400. Since then, the price has bounced upwards a little, almost closing above 1.2450. While price could easily hit the support line at 1.2400 again, it is now more likely to begin a rally during the next two weeks – especially if price crosses the resistance line at 1.2600 to the upside. At that point, the bias will have turned bullish.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is currently bullish, but may not be so at the end of the fortnight. Until then, it is possible for bulls to push price near the resistance line at 1.9750, but it is not likely that the line will be breached – at least, not for the time being. Price has been correcting lower (which some may see as an opportunity to go long) but, should any strength develop in CHF (which is expected to occur over the next two weeks), USDCHF will fall towards the support level at 0.9550.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable trended downwards last week, dropping more than 200 pips. Price hit the accumulation territory at 1.5800 before the recent weak rally. With further strength in the Greenback, Cable could fall below that accumulation territory, but there is a possibility of the currently weak rally gaining strength and taking price back towards the distribution territory at 1.6000.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair remains strong, maintaining a pronounced Bullish Confirmation Pattern. Price went far beyond our weekly target – managing to test the supply level at 115.50 before falling back slightly. Moderate bullish effort could see that supply level hit again, and there is a demand level at 113.50 that should be a barrier to any bearish activity. That said, should price manage to drop below the demand level at 113.00, the bullish outlook will be under threat.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The market closed at 142.72 on Friday, November 7, 2014 after moving sideways for a few days. The overall trend is bullish, but is now relying on the Euro gaining strength and the Yen not.