Weekly Forex May 24

It’s Memorial day weekend. Visit a grave and thank a veteran for dying for your freedoms to trade forex, eat twinkies and talk trash. Because ‘Merica!

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair dropped by 430 pips last week and up 230 the week before, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Price has already tested the support line at 1.1000, and could well test it again – possibly breaking through this time. The support lines at 1.0900 and 1.0850 are the probable targets for this week considering the current bearish bias. To be honest, we may just see more sideways movement as the currency is at it’s “corrected” price.

Continue reading Weekly Forex May 24

Weekly FOREX – May 10th 2015

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair made some bullish attempts last week, but the bears were trying hard to frustrate all efforts. Price is now above the support line at 1.1150 and the support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050 should act in support of the current bias. Any movement below these support lines – especially the support line at 1.1050, will result in the start of a nice bearish outlook. There is a high probability of this pair weakening this month – possibly as early as this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF is now trying to rally in the context of a downtrend. Last week, price dived by over 200 pips and slammed into the support level at 0.9100 before rallying by around 200 pips to close at 0.9303. Unless significant weakness manifests in EURUSD, this rally will turn out to be just a temporary bullish effort that allows sellers to go short at better prices in the context of a downtrend. USDCHF will remain under selling pressure as long as EURUSD is strong and, without movement above the resistance level at 0.9500, this will remain a truly bearish market.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week, Cable consolidated between Monday and Wednesday, but broke upward on Thursday. Price moved from the accumulation territory at 1.5200 to the distribution territory at 1.5500. This is a movement of around 300 pips – fuelled by optimism and positive sentiment behind GBP. Nevertheless, the outlook is bearish for this month and the decline could start this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
One thing to note is how great this pair has been for scalpers and intraday traders, but is currently far from ideal for swing and position traders as the upswings and downswings are short-term and erratic. However, the overall bias is bullish, and this may hold until Yen gains some serious strength.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The fate of this cross is being determined by the strength of Euro. If the Euro becomes weak then it will plummet, but Euro strength will fuel a rally. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market, but that will be violated if price drops below the demand zone at 132.00.

Weekly FOREX May 3. May the 4th be with you.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair managed to push north by over 420 pips. Price moved above resistance at 1.1250 but later fell back to close just below the resistance line at 1.12000. While it is not impossible for EURUSD to reach the resistance lines at 1.1300 and 1.1350, the outlook for this week (and this month) is bearish. So, EURUSD might get a little higher, but the likelihood of a down-trend beginning this week is very high.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF has been under bearish pressure from the strong bullish trend on EURUSD. Price broke through the resistance levels at 0.9400 and 0.9350 last week, testing the support level at 0.9300, and will remain under bearish pressure for as long as EURUSD is strong. However, any significant weakness in EURUSD will cause a strong jump in USDCHF which, based on the expectation of EURUSD falling this week, could push price upward by at least 200 pips by Friday’s close.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD moved upwards by 300 pips last week, and later fell by the same amount. Although the extant bias is still bullish, any movement below the accumulation territories at 1.5050 and 1.4950 will result in a clean bearish signal in the market. This week – actually, this month – the outlook on GBPUSD and some other GBP pairs is bearish. This is also true of most popular pairs and crosses except anti-cyclical currencies like USD and JPY.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is now a bullish signal in this market, which started on April 30, 2015. Price has now crossed above the demand level at 120.00, so the supply levels at 120.50 and 130.00 can also be tested, but one thing must be borne in mind; price can easily tumble if Yen becomes strong, and the outlook on JPY pairs for this entire month is bearish. Welcome to the month of the bears!

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross moved upwards over 580 pips last week due to strength in the Euro. EURJPY is known as one of the fastest moving among popular JPY pairs, hence the strong northward shift. With stamina in the Euro likely to deplete over the coming two weeks, EURJPY is looking at a smooth journey to the south. Bulls should therefore take care.

Weekly FOREX – April 19 2015 – Tax week fallout

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair moved upwards by over 260 pips last week. The bullish journey began at the support line of 1.0550, and price is now above the support line at 1.0800. The next targets for the bulls are located at the resistance lines of 1.0900 and 1.1000, but there must be ongoing buying pressure for these targets to be reached. The current bullish outlook is delicate, because any weakness in the Euro could send the market tumbling, reaching the support lines at 1.0700 and 1.0600.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF nose-dived by 300 pips last week. Price reached a high of 0.9862 and a low of 0.9494. The support level at 0.9500 has already been tested, and it could be tested again, or even breached. Ultimately, the support levels at 0.9400 and 0.9350 could also be tested. On the upside, there are resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9750.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable is now strong – the bullish effort that started recently having paid off. There is now a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price moved upwards by over 400 pips, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.4600 and testing the distribution territory at 1.5050. In spite of the current shallow bearish retracement, Cable is expected to maintain its strength – possibly reaching the distribution territories at 1.6000 and 1.6500.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY has gone bearish, managing to drop below the supply level at 119.00. Price has to maintain its position below that supply level for the bearish outlook to continue making sense, for any movement above it could put the bears in a defensive position. Should the market weakness continue this week, the demand levels at 118.50 and 118.00 can expect a battering.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although this pair rose by 200 pips last week (from the demand zone at 126.50 to the supply zone at 128.50), the bearish bias is still in place. Only movement above the supply zone at 129.50 can render the current bearish bias invalid. Any journey below the current demand levels (127.50 and 127.00) will simply reinforce the current bearish bias.

Weekly Forex April 12.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair plunged by 400 pips last week due to the very weak condition of the Euro. In fact, most EUR pairs are weak – hence justification of the ongoing bearish trajectory. The market is expected to continue down even further next week, reaching the support lines at 1.0500 and 1.0450, and relying on resistance at 1.0700 and 1.0800 to challenge any rallies this coming week, for only a break above the resistance line at 1.0800 can threaten the current bearish outlook.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD is strong and CHF is generally weak. USDCHF was therefore able to trend higher last week – rising from the support level at 0.9500 and reaching the resistance level at 0.9800. The expectation for this week is bullish, so price may reach the resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950. Attempts to push the pair downwards are likely to be frustrated by the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent equilibrium phase of Cable came to an end as the market nose-dived – testing the accumulation territory at 1.4600 as Cable reached a high of 1.4980 and a low of 1.4586 last week. There is now a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is probable that further southerly movement could result in price reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4500, but GBP could cause the pair to rally this week, so the distribution territories at 1.4850 and 1.4900 are being watched.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on this pair is still bullish, though the bias is in a precarious position. Bulls are fighting desperately to sustain their hegemony, but price constantly threatens to break down. The only factor that keeps the bullish bias in place is strength in the Greenback. Should that wane, this pair can tumble, but bulls are likely to maintain the bullish bias; which will not be truly over until the demand level at 119.00 is broken.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
A drop of more than 350 pips on this cross has been significant enough to bring about a confirmed bearish outlook. On Friday, April 10, price closed at 127.47, so the bias remains strongly bearish. Price may continue downward this week – potentially reaching the demand zones at 126.50 and 126.00.

Weekly Forex forecast: March 29.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD, which has been making some bullish attempts for a few weeks, is now above the support line at 1.0850. To the downside, there is support at 1.0800 and 1.0700. To the upside, there is resistance at 1.1000 and 1.2000. It is expected that price will oscillate between the resistance line at 1.2000 and the support line at 1.0700 in the coming week, as only a significant event will allow price to break out of that channel.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair remains bearish in spite of some faint attempts by bulls to halt the situation. There are support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400 and resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800; so price is expected to bounce between the resistance level at 0.9800 and the support level at 0.9400 for the time being. There will need to be some very strong momentum in the market before price can move beyond these limits.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable was flat last week. Should this week be a repeat of last, then the overall bias will turn neutral. The recent bias is bearish, and the current price action shows a serious tug of war between the bulls and bears. Either this week or next should see a rise in momentum that may force price below the accumulation territory at 1.4750 or above the distribution territory at 1.5050, though it is more likely that Cable will rally.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY is currently weak. Price tested the demand level at 118.50 last week and it could possibly test the demand level at 118.00. However, a bullish break is a possibility over the next two weeks – especially if the Yen weakens.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on this cross is bullish and should remain bullish provided price stays below the demand zone at 128.50. Any bullish continuation this week may allow price to reach the supply zones at 131.00 and 131.50. Generally, some weakness is expected in JPY over the next two weeks that should allow some JPY pairs to rally.

News Snippets: FOMC rate news and Euro Riots.

Today is a pretty big day in the Financial world. The US FOMC ruling on rates is coming out at noon. While the rate is expected to remain at .25%, it is anticipated they will remove the “Patience” wording opening the doors to a midyear hike, the first in a decade.
The US economy is resuming it’s position as an economic powerhouse. The dollar value has grown significantly in the past year and with unemployment at 5.5%ish.
While in Europe, violent protestors clash with the opening of the new $1.5 billion central bank building. They’re blaming the bank for destroying millions of lives and policing bailouts that would save Greece and Portugal.

What we’re looking at is a great bearish opportunity for the EUR/USD and a great year to plan your European vacation. While it’s currently at 1.05 per US dollar we can expect a near penny drop and reaching party with the US dollar in a short while.

Weekly FOREX March 15

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market currently is one of the weakest of the majors, making lower highs and lower lows. It proffers shorting opportunities with any short-term rallies that occur. The great support line at 1.0500 is being battered hard by furious bears, and it may see price go towards the support lines at 1.0400 and 1.0300. There is no big deal in EUR reaching parity with USD. CAD, CHF and AUD were able to reach parity with USD, so why not EUR? Unless the resistance lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 are overcome, the outlook this week is bearish.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook on this pair is bullish – provided EURUSD remains weak. There is also a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market while price stays above the psychological support level at 1.0000. There is another important support level at 0.9900, and as long as price stays above both, short trades will be irrational. The targets for buyers this week are located at 1.0150 and 1.0200.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable dipped by over 300 pips last week – testing the accumulation territories at 1.4750 and 1.4700. Further bearishness is possible, which may let the market reach the accumulation territory at 1.4600. However, there may be a rally before the end of this week that is significant enough to jeopardize the existing bearish bias, especially in the near-term.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
In spite of insignificant movement on this pair, especially in recent times, the trend is still bullish, and an increase in momentum favoring bulls is expected at the end of this week or early next week (for most JPY pairs, in fact) and USDJPY could reach the supply levels at 122.00 and 123.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the great weakness in the EUR, this cross dropped even further last week. On Friday, March 13, price closed at 127.43 in the context of a downtrend. While the demand zones at 127.00 and 126.00 could be tried, there is also some rationality that this pair could rally before the end of this week.

Weekly FOREX – March 01 – Bye Bye Euro

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
After being in an equilibrium phase for a few weeks, this pair experienced further weakness last Thursday with price dropping by 180 pips to close below the resistance line at 1.1200. While price might saunter into the territory below the resistance line at 1.1100, it may not be able to go down further. The outlook for the Euro is bullish this week, so a rally of 100 – 200 pips is possible any day this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF should have jumped quite seriously last week in response to the drop in EURUSD. However, the bullish influence of USDCHF has been restrained by bearish efforts to drag the pair lower. If price fails to get above the resistance level at 0.9550 then some bearish correction is likely which may take the pair towards the support levels at 0.9500 and 0.9450.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook on Cable is bullish. It moved upwards at the beginning of last week to reach the distribution territory at 1.5550, but failed to close above it, so corrected downwards and tested the accumulation territory at 1.5400. There is a possibility of Cable testing the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250 this week, which would invalidate the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
Price has bounced between the demand level at 119.00 and the supply level at 120.00, but may trend higher from here, breaking the supply level at 120.00 and targeting the supply level at 130.00. The outlook for all JPY pairs for this week, and for the rest of March 2015, is bullish.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the recent weakness in the Euro, this cross managed a moderate bearish trend. Price moved lower, but further downward movement was rejected at the 133.50 demand zone. On Friday, February 27, price closed at 133.93 which was a weak bullish effort. As mentioned previously, the Yen is expected to be weak this week (and for most of this month), so short trades are not recommended on any JPY pairs. A rally is expected on this cross at any time.

Weekly FOREX – Week of Feb 22 – It’s a Greek Thing.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Flat
This market is not currently favorable for swing trading, just intraday trading and scalping. This is because the market has not moved protractedly in a vivid direction for weeks. There is a support line at 1.1300 and a resistance line at 1.1450, so a breakout is needed determine the next direction of the market. A close above resistance at 1.1450 is more probable as EUR is likely to rally this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Movement on this pair is more conspicuous than on EURUSD so, to see what this market is doing more clearly, timeframes such as hourly and 30-minutes are best. The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the near-term, as price moved upwards by 200 pips last week to reach the resistance level at 0.9500. From there, price made a retracement of 140 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9400. Further southward correction could result in a bearish near-term bias on this pair.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the bias on Cable is still bullish, weakness is likely this week. On Friday, February 20, price closed at 1.5396 which left a “lower high” formation in the market. Price might reach the distribution territory at 1.5500, but northward movement will probably be limited this week as the likelihood of downward movement is greater.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Flat
This market has not moved significantly recently, leaving price in an equilibrium phase – swayed by alternating buying and selling pressure, and invariably transitory. The demand zone at 118.00 remains a good challenge to any southward attempt and that means a chance to breach the supply level at 120.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Flat
This pair is also in an equilibrium phase and the plunge on Friday was quickly followed by a rally. Price may continue upward this week or next, with any movement above the supply zone at 136.50 resulting in a bullish Confirmation Pattern.