Weekly Forex forecast: March 29.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD, which has been making some bullish attempts for a few weeks, is now above the support line at 1.0850. To the downside, there is support at 1.0800 and 1.0700. To the upside, there is resistance at 1.1000 and 1.2000. It is expected that price will oscillate between the resistance line at 1.2000 and the support line at 1.0700 in the coming week, as only a significant event will allow price to break out of that channel.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair remains bearish in spite of some faint attempts by bulls to halt the situation. There are support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400 and resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800; so price is expected to bounce between the resistance level at 0.9800 and the support level at 0.9400 for the time being. There will need to be some very strong momentum in the market before price can move beyond these limits.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable was flat last week. Should this week be a repeat of last, then the overall bias will turn neutral. The recent bias is bearish, and the current price action shows a serious tug of war between the bulls and bears. Either this week or next should see a rise in momentum that may force price below the accumulation territory at 1.4750 or above the distribution territory at 1.5050, though it is more likely that Cable will rally.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY is currently weak. Price tested the demand level at 118.50 last week and it could possibly test the demand level at 118.00. However, a bullish break is a possibility over the next two weeks – especially if the Yen weakens.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on this cross is bullish and should remain bullish provided price stays below the demand zone at 128.50. Any bullish continuation this week may allow price to reach the supply zones at 131.00 and 131.50. Generally, some weakness is expected in JPY over the next two weeks that should allow some JPY pairs to rally.

News Snippets: FOMC rate news and Euro Riots.

Today is a pretty big day in the Financial world. The US FOMC ruling on rates is coming out at noon. While the rate is expected to remain at .25%, it is anticipated they will remove the “Patience” wording opening the doors to a midyear hike, the first in a decade.
The US economy is resuming it’s position as an economic powerhouse. The dollar value has grown significantly in the past year and with unemployment at 5.5%ish.
While in Europe, violent protestors clash with the opening of the new $1.5 billion central bank building. They’re blaming the bank for destroying millions of lives and policing bailouts that would save Greece and Portugal.

What we’re looking at is a great bearish opportunity for the EUR/USD and a great year to plan your European vacation. While it’s currently at 1.05 per US dollar we can expect a near penny drop and reaching party with the US dollar in a short while.

Weekly FOREX March 15

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market currently is one of the weakest of the majors, making lower highs and lower lows. It proffers shorting opportunities with any short-term rallies that occur. The great support line at 1.0500 is being battered hard by furious bears, and it may see price go towards the support lines at 1.0400 and 1.0300. There is no big deal in EUR reaching parity with USD. CAD, CHF and AUD were able to reach parity with USD, so why not EUR? Unless the resistance lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 are overcome, the outlook this week is bearish.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook on this pair is bullish – provided EURUSD remains weak. There is also a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market while price stays above the psychological support level at 1.0000. There is another important support level at 0.9900, and as long as price stays above both, short trades will be irrational. The targets for buyers this week are located at 1.0150 and 1.0200.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable dipped by over 300 pips last week – testing the accumulation territories at 1.4750 and 1.4700. Further bearishness is possible, which may let the market reach the accumulation territory at 1.4600. However, there may be a rally before the end of this week that is significant enough to jeopardize the existing bearish bias, especially in the near-term.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
In spite of insignificant movement on this pair, especially in recent times, the trend is still bullish, and an increase in momentum favoring bulls is expected at the end of this week or early next week (for most JPY pairs, in fact) and USDJPY could reach the supply levels at 122.00 and 123.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the great weakness in the EUR, this cross dropped even further last week. On Friday, March 13, price closed at 127.43 in the context of a downtrend. While the demand zones at 127.00 and 126.00 could be tried, there is also some rationality that this pair could rally before the end of this week.

Weekly FOREX – March 01 – Bye Bye Euro

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
After being in an equilibrium phase for a few weeks, this pair experienced further weakness last Thursday with price dropping by 180 pips to close below the resistance line at 1.1200. While price might saunter into the territory below the resistance line at 1.1100, it may not be able to go down further. The outlook for the Euro is bullish this week, so a rally of 100 – 200 pips is possible any day this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF should have jumped quite seriously last week in response to the drop in EURUSD. However, the bullish influence of USDCHF has been restrained by bearish efforts to drag the pair lower. If price fails to get above the resistance level at 0.9550 then some bearish correction is likely which may take the pair towards the support levels at 0.9500 and 0.9450.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The outlook on Cable is bullish. It moved upwards at the beginning of last week to reach the distribution territory at 1.5550, but failed to close above it, so corrected downwards and tested the accumulation territory at 1.5400. There is a possibility of Cable testing the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250 this week, which would invalidate the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
Price has bounced between the demand level at 119.00 and the supply level at 120.00, but may trend higher from here, breaking the supply level at 120.00 and targeting the supply level at 130.00. The outlook for all JPY pairs for this week, and for the rest of March 2015, is bullish.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the recent weakness in the Euro, this cross managed a moderate bearish trend. Price moved lower, but further downward movement was rejected at the 133.50 demand zone. On Friday, February 27, price closed at 133.93 which was a weak bullish effort. As mentioned previously, the Yen is expected to be weak this week (and for most of this month), so short trades are not recommended on any JPY pairs. A rally is expected on this cross at any time.

Weekly FOREX – Week of Feb 22 – It’s a Greek Thing.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Flat
This market is not currently favorable for swing trading, just intraday trading and scalping. This is because the market has not moved protractedly in a vivid direction for weeks. There is a support line at 1.1300 and a resistance line at 1.1450, so a breakout is needed determine the next direction of the market. A close above resistance at 1.1450 is more probable as EUR is likely to rally this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Movement on this pair is more conspicuous than on EURUSD so, to see what this market is doing more clearly, timeframes such as hourly and 30-minutes are best. The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the near-term, as price moved upwards by 200 pips last week to reach the resistance level at 0.9500. From there, price made a retracement of 140 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9400. Further southward correction could result in a bearish near-term bias on this pair.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the bias on Cable is still bullish, weakness is likely this week. On Friday, February 20, price closed at 1.5396 which left a “lower high” formation in the market. Price might reach the distribution territory at 1.5500, but northward movement will probably be limited this week as the likelihood of downward movement is greater.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Flat
This market has not moved significantly recently, leaving price in an equilibrium phase – swayed by alternating buying and selling pressure, and invariably transitory. The demand zone at 118.00 remains a good challenge to any southward attempt and that means a chance to breach the supply level at 120.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Flat
This pair is also in an equilibrium phase and the plunge on Friday was quickly followed by a rally. Price may continue upward this week or next, with any movement above the supply zone at 136.50 resulting in a bullish Confirmation Pattern.

Weekly FOREX – Week of Feb 15 – Grexit time?

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Channel locked
Although the recent bias has been bearish, bulls have been making efforts to push price higher. Price consolidated last week and traded upwards a little, closing at 1.1390 on Friday. The outlook for the rest of this month is bullish, and any movement above the resistance line at 1.1500 will lead to a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is currently volatile as bulls and bears engage in a power tussle. The current bias is bullish, but there is no real expectation of a significant upward move this week as EURUSD is likely to move north and the negative correlation effect would pose a challenge to the bullish bias in USDCHF, causing some pullbacks.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable, which assumed a bullish bias a few weeks ago, experienced a smooth bullish run at the end of last week. Price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5200 and reached the distribution territory at 1.5400: a movement of 200 pips. The distribution territory at 1.5400 is currently being battered, and could give way to further northward movement. This week, price could challenge the next distribution territory at 1.5500.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week, USDJPY rose from the demand level at 118.50, almost reaching the supply level at 120.50 (another move of 200 pips). From near that demand level, price has dropped – rendering bullish efforts useless. Between the supply level at 119.00 and the demand level at 118.50, volatility has increased, but only a break below the demand level at 118.00 can invalidate the recent bullish bias, so price may still rise from here.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross made a commendable effort to climb last week. Short trades are not currently recommended, as price is expected to continue meandering upwards over the next two weeks (interspersed with visible bearish attacks) and this expectation remains logical while price stays above the demand zone at 134.00.

Weekly FOREX: Week of Feb – 01 – The Groundhog.

Will the Groundhog see it’s own shadow strewn across the fallen fields of the Euro to bring us 6 more weeks of bearish trend? Or will the Euro finally recover from it’s fallen graces?

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Flat – Bearish
I’m leaning towards a flat channel with bearish inclination this week. Last week saw a “normal” rebound after such a vast and sudden drop. This leads to many cashed out shorts with a renewing interest as the price stabilizes over this and the coming weeks.  Price made serious bullish attempts, reaching the resistance line at 1.1400 and then consolidated through to the end of last week; all in the context of a downtrend. This week, the downward trend ought to continue, enabling price to reach the support lines at 1.1200 and 1.1150. Only a break above the resistance line at 1.1450 could render the existing bearish outlook invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The long-term bias on USD/CHF is bearish, but in the near-term, the bias is bullish. For the past two weeks, price has been slowly and steadily moving upwards – as forecast. If this slow and steady bullish inclination continues for a few more weeks then the overall bias could turn bullish. However, occasional transitory pullbacks are expected on any journey to the upside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week was characterized by a pitched battle between the bulls and the bears – resulting in serious swings in the market as price bounced between a high of 1.5222 and a low of 1.4987. There is a distribution territory at 1.5200 and an accumulation territory at the same level, so further weakness could let Cable drop back to the accumulation territory at 1.5000. Overall, the outlook is bearish and it will remain so unless the distribution territory at 1.5200 is breached and price is able to remain above it.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There was not much activity in this market over the last week; except for occasional short-term upswings and downswings. This week, should see either the supply level at 119.00 or the demand level at 117.00 being breached. A breach to the upside will result in a new lease of bullish energy, while a break downward will result in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern, but this is currently a market in equilibrium.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Despite significant attempts from bulls to push price up last week, the outlook for this market is bearish. From the demand zone at 130.50, price went up to reach the supply zone at 134.00. On Friday, January 29, 2015, price closed at 132.66, on a bearish note. The weakness in this cross is still evident, so only a break above the supply zone at 135.50 could really endanger the bearish outlook.

“Since the market provides us with an infinite number of opportunities — and will continue to do so as long as human nature remains what it is, only fill your bowl with what you can carry on each trade.” – Dr Ken Long

Weekly FOREX 1-25-2015 – Watching Europe Burn

While it’s sort of not funny to get giddy over an entire economy collapsing, there’s money to be made in it. First the Swiss file for a “surprise” divorce then the ECB creates money out of thin air. Upwards of 60 Billion euro’s a month till the end of 2016. Which means it will soon be less than the US dollar. Pack your bags, ’cause a European vacation is gonna be a whole lot cheaper.
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Euro is now one of the weakest of the popular currencies, having dropped by roughly 900 pips since the beginning of this year. The support line at 1.1150 has already been tested and will be tested again (with the potential to be breached), as it is supported by a vivid Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook for this week is bearish – continuous selling pressure is expected and there is a strong possibility that the Euro could reach parity with the US Dollar.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on USDCHF remains unchanged. On Friday, January 23, 2015, price closed at 0.8784. As EURUSD is weak, USDCHF ought to be strong, and that strength will continue to build gradually in the context of a bearish outlook. Price should continue to move slowly and steadily upwards this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
One nice thing about Cable is that it has now resumed a clean, positive correlation with EURUSD – an established habit. Cable and EURUSD are both dropping, but the drop in the latter is more significant. For Cable, a further drop is expected this week, which may be more serious than the drop last week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
When compared to EURJPY, this pair did not move so much recently. Upswings are alternated by downswings, though the bears are able to make their presence felt. Price may be able to reach the demand level at 116.50, but there is the possibility that the bulls will end up dominating the market before the end of this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair made some effort to rally last week. From the beginning of the week, price went upwards by 200 pips, reaching the supply zone at 137.50. However, further upwards movement was rejected at that supply zone, and price dropped steeply – reaching the demand zone at 131.00. There is a negligible upward bounce in the market, which means almost nothing when compared to the overall bias. Overall, this pair has dropped over 1300 pips since the beginning of this year. Price may test the demand zones at 131.00 and 130.00, but will only go further south in the face of continued weakness in the Euro, as there is the possibility that the Yen will become weaker before the end of this month.

Weekly FOREX – Jan 18 – The Red Wedding

This week looks to be quite a bearish one. With the Swiss Franc going solo (de-coupling) against the EURO, both are in for a hectic ride until things stabilize in the coming months. The only thing to say is if you like the Bull ride, this is not your week.

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved down by over 300 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.1459. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market so price may test the support line at 1.1450, even if an upwards bounce follows. If so, the possibility exists that the resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 could be challenged.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is now an abnormal market, as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the peg on EURCHF and cut their interest rate (which is currently negative). This happened on January 15, 2015 and had an extreme impact on all CHF pairs. For example, CHFJPY rose by over 2400 pips to reach a high of 138.97; and USDCHF nosedived by over 2800 pips, reaching a low of 0.7309. This all happened in one day, and similarly unusual volatility affected all other CHF pairs. These kinds of 1-day movements are extremely spectacular, but prices are bound to correct in the long run, so things should return to normal in a matter of weeks. For instance, when USDCHF dropped like a stone, EURUSD should have spiked skywards, as they are usually negatively correlated. In reality, EURUSD was not affected, so both pairs cannot remain bearish for long (and the Greenback is strong in its own right). USDCHF should therefore move upwards by at least 500 pips this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable made noticeable effort to go bullish last week, but further bullish effort was halted at the distribution territory of 1.5250 and, since then, a bearish retracement has occurred. On Friday, January 16, 2015, price closed around the distribution territory at 1.5150. More bearish movement is expected this week, so price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The general outlook on this pair is weak – though price is making some effort to go up in the context of the downtrend. The demand levels at 116.50 and 116.00 could be tested this week (leading to the same demand levels defending further southerly thrust). Bullish effort could therefore enable price to test the supply levels at 118.00 and 118.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross dropped by over 400 pips last week, closing at 135.97 on Friday. Overall, it has dropped by over 1,000 pips since the beginning of this year. The current shallow rally pales into insignificance compared to the overall bias – bearish. The only thing that can change the situation is a weakening of the Yen, which could happen this week or next.

Weekly FOREX Jan 11 2015 NYE

Happy New Year for those who celebrate it.

 

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
no surprise that the EURUSD assumed its southerly journey on January 2, 2015, going down further and further during the following days. With a looming threat of Nuclear war with Russia over the Ukraine the pressure is on. Price went below the support line at 1.1800, and then consolidated until the end of the week. There is now a slight rally, which could portend the start of buying pressure if price crosses the resistance line at 1.1900, going towards another resistance line at 1.2000. The support lines at 1.1800 and 1.1700 remain a barrier to further downward movement at this time.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since USD reached parity with CHF, this pair has moved upwards another 200 pips, enabling price to test the resistance level at 1.0200. There is a minor pullback in the market, which could mean the beginning a near-term bearish run, provided that the great support level at 1.0000 is unable to contain more bearish correction. On the other hand, a break above the resistance line at 1.0200 could indicate the continuation of the existing bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is bearish – going down by over 200 pips on January 2, 2015, and going down over 200 pips again last week. The accumulation territory at 1.5050 was tested before the current upwards bounce in the market, which has taken price above the accumulation territory of 1.5150. While it is possible for price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5250, the probability of pullbacks reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5050 again still exists.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY remains volatile, with short-term victories for both bulls and bears. Over the past few weeks, this pair has been unable to remain above the supply level at 120.50 and, as a result, the near-term bias has become bearish. In the face of recent swings in the market, the demand levels at 118.00 and 117.50 could now be tested. The supply levels at 120.00 and 120.50 should also act as impediment to rallies in the market.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the beginning of this month, this pair has moved south by more than 450 pips – contributing to the strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Friday (January 9, 2015), price closed at 140.32 – on a bearish note. Since it closed below the supply zone at 140.50, it may be easier for the demand zones at 139.50 or 139.00 to be tested, although there could be a strong rally after that.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“Realize that there is no holy grail and that a simple approach with proper money management can actually work.” – Dave Landry